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WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 - Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market for single-family homes showed continued improvement in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) latest 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The index increased 10 points to a level of 28, the fifth consecutive quarter of year over year improvements.

"We continue to see increased optimism from builders and developers in the 55+ housing segment," said Bob Karen, chairman of NAHB's 50+ Housing Council and managing member of the Symphony Development Group. "Those customers who had been on the sidelines waiting for more stability in their local markets are starting to make their move toward either purchasing a home or renting an apartment that is designed to more specifically suit their lifestyle."

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The number of American housing markets considered “improved” has topped the 200 mark, with 44 states boasting better housing business.

That’s the word from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/First American Improving Market Index (IMI).

Improving markets jumped 76 in December to 201, while the number of states represented on the list by at least one metro city increased from 38 to 44. The index identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement in housing permits, employment and housing prices for at least six consecutive months. The IMI said that a total of 84 new markets were added to the list and eight were dropped for the month.

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The housing market’s fragile recovery should continue into 2013 and beyond if the economy doesn’t fall off the fiscal cliff and there are not further limitations on the availability of mortgage credit.

That was the consensus of economists attending a major conference of realtors. One especially positive outlook was presented by Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, who said that the market really turned around in 2012.

“Existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts are all recording notable gains this year in contrast with suppressed activity in the previous four years. All major home price measures are showing sustained increases,” Yun said. The economist said he saw no threatening signs for inflation in the coming year, but projects it to be in the range of four to six percent by 2015.

“The huge federal budget deficit is likely to push up borrowing costs and raise inflation by well above two percent,” he said. Of particular interest to the stone industry, Yun said new home sales in 2012 are expected to increase to 368,000 this year from a record low of 301,000 in 2011, and grow strongly to 575,000 in 2013. He predicted that housing starts are forecast to grow to 776,000 in 2012, up from 612,000 in 2011, and reach 1.13 million next year. Yun also said existing home sales will climb 8.7 percent in 2013 to 5.05 million units.

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After wallowing in mediocrity as other segments of the economy perked up, the housing market finally appears to have stabilized and now is on a robust upward path. The outlook for remodeling, the stone industry’s other lifeline, also is looking much brighter.

With the presidential election next week, can the momentum be sustained?

The best advice would seem to be enjoy the good news and keep your fingers crossed.

As Yahoo Finance put it, housing construction numbers for September were “blowout” and “smashed consensus.” Single family starts rose 11 percent and were up nearly 43 percent from the previous year. Building permits for multi-family buildings, not condos, were up 93.4 percent from a year ago to 323,000, which was above the 10-year average of 296,000.

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All of the pieces seem to be coming into place for a sustained rebound of a housing market that has had the U.S. economy by the throat since the beginning of the recession.

Virtually all of the news is positive in this report.

Even before good news came on the real estate and new housing fronts (that the annual rate of builder confidence was once again positive), confidence in the market for newly built single family homes rose for a fifth consecutive month in September to a level of 40 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The three point gain brought the index to its highest reading since June 2006. (One can remember not too long ago when it was in the 20’s, with the dividing line between negative and positive being 50, which, frankly seemed like a dream.)

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There’s no question but that the new housing picture has brightened during the past several months, but there is still a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the economy and the housing industry as we head toward the November presidential elections. As of now, it seems, the only certainty going forward is uncertainty.

As word came out that sales of newly built, single family homes rose 3.6 percent to a seasonally rate of 372,000 in July, there was still a flurry of stories fueling anxiety about the future. This in the face of a documented current housing shortage.

In a recent web article, citing figures from the National Association of Realtors, writer Alex Charten pointed out that year-over-year figures comparing the second quarter of 2011 to the second quarter of 2012, showed that existing home sales were up 8.6 percent, while the existing inventory for sale was down 24.4 per cent. Media home sale prices were up 7.3 percent.

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Most of the signs are positive that the housing market is finally headed in the right direction, but we’ve been fooled before.

Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 7.6 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted 369,000 units, according to the HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau. David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders called the increase “a welcome sign that the market has returned to a more solid growth path following lackluster reports in March and April.” He said the rise is in keeping with NAHB’s expectations for continued steady improvement through the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Barry Ruttenberg, chairman of the group said that the increase shows that more home buyers are being drawn to the market by today’s excellent mortgage rates.

Not all areas of the country were the beneficiaries of the good news. While the Northeast and South posted solid gains of 36.7 and 12.7 percent, respectively, the Midwest and West posted declines of 10.6 and 3.5 percent.

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WASHINGTON, June 19 - Single-family housing production increased for a third consecutive month and builders pulled more permits for both single- and multifamily construction in May, according to newly released figures from HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau. The data reveals that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of single-family housing starts rose 3.2 percent to 516,000 units - the best pace since December of 2011.

"Today's report is a good sign that builders are cautiously moving to replenish their depleted inventories of single-family homes in response to increasing buyer demand," said Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. "In certain housing markets across the country, the momentum toward recovery is gradually building, though tough credit conditions and inaccurate appraisal values continue to weigh down that progress."

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WASHINGTON, April 17 - Single-family housing production held virtually unchanged in March as a double-digit decline in the more volatile multifamily sector brought combined nationwide starts activity down 5.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 654,000 units, according to data released by the U.S. Commerce Department today.

"While more consumers appear to be seriously considering a new-home purchase, builders remain very cautious about starting new projects until they see more actual sales materializing," said Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. "At the same time, in places where buyers are ready to go forward with a purchase, access to credit for both builders and buyers and difficulties in obtaining accurate appraisals are persistent challenges that continue to slow that process considerably."

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